Climategate

[Pont]

Climategate

So what is everyones thoughts on this 'Climategate' thing?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_e-mail_hacking_incident

I'd like to hear thoughts from both sides of the ocean.

 

[Nottheking]

Re: Climategate

As far as this incident goes... It's overblown. The so-called "smoking gun" email in question refers to simply discussing the most "effective" means of plotting a graph. In short... It was discussing the method of splicing data from two kinds of sources, covering "temperature reconstructions" using tree-ring samples from an earlier time, and using the high-accuracy global air measurements that didn't start to be taken until the 1980s. From what I gather, it was a technique of "smoothing" that both hid spikes up and down from the general trend along the line... Generally eliminating the larger downward spike in the 60s and 70s. (the "global cooling" era)

 

[Mister Dank]

Re: Climategate

stop caring

 

[Reefer!]

Re: Climategate

stop caring

Why do you alway's beat me to it? Now go eat ur nicely steak :>

 

[Pont]

Re: Climategate

As far as this incident goes... It's overblown. The so-called "smoking gun" email in question refers to simply discussing the most "effective" means of plotting a graph. In short... It was discussing the method of splicing data from two kinds of sources, covering "temperature reconstructions" using tree-ring samples from an earlier time, and using the high-accuracy global air measurements that didn't start to be taken until the 1980s. From what I gather, it was a technique of "smoothing" that both hid spikes up and down from the general trend along the line... Generally eliminating the larger downward spike in the 60s and 70s. (the "global cooling" era)

Yeah I'd go with that.

 

[mantorras]

Re: Climategate

Slightly offtopic but, what's the deal with global warming and it's relation with human gas emissions? I mean human gas emissions are just one of a series of factors that contribute to global warming, we don't even know for sure if global warming is not part of the planet's temperature cycle like ice ages.
So we are worrying about something that may be just inevitable?
I am not saying we shouldn't care about polution in general but still I think we are blowing this out of proportions...

 

[Howl]

Re: Climategate

we don't even know for sure if global warming is not part of the planet's temperature cycle like ice ages.

We have proxy data for the last few hundred thousand years showing temperature cycles and atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions, but recent temperature records show an increase that has a gradient that is far, far, far above anything that has ever been seen, which very strangely coincides with a huge, huge increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

 

[Lucifall]

Re: Climategate

We have proxy data for the last few hundred thousand years showing temperature cycles and atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions, but recent temperature records show an increase that has a gradient that is far, far, far above anything that has ever been seen, which very strangely coincides with a huge, huge increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Damn! That's odd! I wonder what's the relation bewteen the two?

 

[Howl]

Re: Climategate

As far as this incident goes... It's overblown. The so-called "smoking gun" email in question refers to simply discussing the most "effective" means of plotting a graph. In short... It was discussing the method of splicing data from two kinds of sources, covering "temperature reconstructions" using tree-ring samples from an earlier time, and using the high-accuracy global air measurements that didn't start to be taken until the 1980s. From what I gather, it was a technique of "smoothing" that both hid spikes up and down from the general trend along the line... Generally eliminating the larger downward spike in the 60s and 70s. (the "global cooling" era)

Agreed. The IPCC asked for an accurate temperature record and that's what the researchers at CRU gave them - data that combines proxy data for distant past temperature and actual readings for recent temperature. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that proxy data isn't going to accurately predict recent temperature changes, especially in the light of human activity. In fact, it stands to reason that a big difference between predicted recent temperature based on past temperature records and natural models and the actual readings taken indicates AGW... and this is exactly what models find.

The vast, vast, vast majority of the ruckus comes from a few e-mails sent between professionals in the same field over ten years ago. They're not going to be writing in a language that's unambiguous to the general public and idiot skeptics who will do anything to make them look bad. They weren't expecting those e-mails to be illegally accessed and scrutinized, were they? Of course there are going to be connotations from their language which look bad.

Most people refer to the one e-mail which states... "Mike's nature trick... hide the decline". The use of the word 'trick' can be applied to anything that's clever, really, and I'm sure we can find the use of this word in their other e-mails. "Hide the decline", as I have previously explained, is about erasing the inaccurate recent past temperature predictions from proxy data that can be more accurately portrayed using actual readings.

Also, 95 % of the data at CRU is already publically available.

This whole thing is just another lame attempt to derail reasoned negotiation about an issue which could be the most significant in the history of the human race.

 

[Howl]

Re: Climategate

Damn! That's odd! I wonder what's the relation bewteen the two?

Simple chemistry = /

So called greenhouse gasses are ones which can absorb certain frequencies of electromagnetic radiation, specifically infrared, which causes them to vibrate due to their chemical configuration - this is kinetic energy, so the radiation is turned into temperature that is emitted back towards Earth as well as out of space, creating a situation analogous to heat waves entering a greenhouse and becoming trapped.

^ Just for all the people out there who don't know, and may take you seriously, Brunus =D

 

[Howl]

Re: Climategate

So we are worrying about something that may be just inevitable?

May be inevitable... We have the power to control and mitigate against climate change, no matter whether it is anthropogenic or not... and every reason to do so - to preserve our own species and also other species on Earth. There is a huge list of actions that we can take, individually, as a society, politically and scientifically to make changes that will protect us and the planet. Dietary changes, transport changes, other lifestyle changes, revamping the industry, controlling economic growth, redefining societal progress, negotiating, carbon capture and storage, researching renewable energy sources, building sea defenses, creating seed banks... you name it.

I am not saying we shouldn't care about polution in general but still I think we are blowing this out of proportions...

I think most people are vastly underestimating the potential effect of climate change on our species and on the planet. And peak oil, even more so. Dystopian films could become reality. People have fought over resources and warred during crises many-a-time before.

 

[Howl]

Re: Climategate

Oh yeah, and in case you're wondering why I'm posting so much, I'm actually a student of environmental sciences at the University of East Anglia, where the climate data was stolen from. I know some of the researchers in question. I have no doubts about the scientific excellence of research carried out here and the professional nature in which the data is handled.

 

[Hillbilly Homer]

Re: Climategate

idiot skeptics

is it not funny how any one who don't blindly believe the bull shit is an idiot

 

[Howl]

Re: Climategate

is it not funny how any one who don't blindly believe the bull shit is an idiot

If I was referring to skeptics who actually employ reasoning I would have just said "skeptics".

However, I was referring to people who just call it bull shit for no reason that they make apparent, such as you (or with very poor reasoning, allegations of conspiracy and interpreting 10 year old e-mails in the worst possible way).

 

[Lucifall]

Re: Climategate

If I was referring to skeptics who actually employ reasoning I would have just said "skeptics".

However, I was referring to people who just call it bull shit for no reason that they make apparent, such as you (or with very poor reasoning, allegations of conspiracy and interpreting 10 year old e-mails in the worst possible way).

People usually don't believe in what they don't understand. Let them be, eventually they will know who's right.

 

[Hillbilly Homer]

Re: Climategate

2008 2009 coolest year on record

1985 became the fourth coldest year on record in the western USA.

Aug 21, 2009 ... 2009 could very well be the coldest year on record for Saskatchewan

“Temperatures during the first half of the month in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Minn. and Eau Claire, Wis., will go down in history as the coldest on record ...

Jan 6, 2009 ... Record cold temperatures have arrived to the United Kingdom, Canada (24 consecutive days below -24 °C in a city).......

when you can get a 5 day weather forecast right then come back and give me the 500 year one

 

[weinster666]

Re: Climategate

Global warming is determined by taking the average temperature of every place on earth, over, for example, a year's time, and then comparing that to previous years. So, you can have certain places at certain times of the year actually being colder, but overall the numbers can still show an increase in global temperature.

Also, I remember reading something a while back about how increased CO2 in the atmosphere contributes to colder winters. Heat from the sun is a lot like radio signals. As you may know, sometimes the weaker radio signals can bounce off the ionosphere, causing you to pick up radio station much farther than normal. From what I rememeber, CO2 strengthens the ionosphere and when the heat from the sun hits it at an angle (i.e. wintertime) , more heat is reflected back into space and never gets down here to heat the earth.

Something like that, anyways.

 

[Muggz]

Re: Climategate

Why the fuck is it -45C out if there is global warming going on? It has been this cold all fucking week...

 

[Facko]

Re: Climategate

this thread is a laugh-riot!

 

[Lars Deich]

Re: Climategate

Why the fuck is it -45C out if there is global warming going on? It has been this cold all fucking week...

Take the Saara desert as an example:

Day = 50C Night = 0C

It's related.