I'm guessing ToTs are off

[KickerofAssets]

Yeah I too must thank you for tots for a totally different reason. All the raids normally taking place were out farming them while my guild was getting some good fun in fel champ zones. YAY ! XD

 

[Nottheking]

The problem is, you are thinking one thing, and everyone else will see the world count of the item as its rarity / price basing. There is no way this data could be released without it affecting pricing, for the better or worse.

Yep, that's true... Though I'm not entirely sure how strong an impact it'd be: after all, a few years back the staff then announced that there were only 50 Quacks on the shard, (to try and defend the Net Toss events) yet that didn't salvage the price of them whatsoever: they still sat around the 1-2 million mark, compared to the 15-20 million spot they'd been before the first Net Toss.

Of course, price impacts might be mitigated by announcing quantities for things that aren't ToTs, too, to put things into perspective. I.e, sure, all of us are pretty certain that there's now a 6-digit number of LToTs on the shard, but this compares to what I'm pretty sure is still a 3-digit number or Ornaments, HoMs, Totems, and even Bonecrushers. (and yes, I've been a firm supporter of simply providing counts of ALL major items on the shard for a few years now)

The other side, of course, is that the actual NUMBERS aren't what make up the "supply" part, but rather the number in circulation: that's probably what doomed the Quacks price: the Net Tosses may have only added perhaps a 25-60% increase in the number of such items, but that was all excess, and instantly dumped into circulation, which vastly outstripped the previously-low-demand for said items; and knowledge of the total number, hence, did little to affect things.

Oh, and before you think otherwise about me, let me make sure I've thanked you for running the drop event. I was worried at first that it'd be too brief and only really impact the rich folk like me, (even if I didn't grab all I wanted, I'm still gonna get richer as a result ) but I've seen that we've got a lot of new players on the shard who definitely benefited, bringing new players and making them happy enough to make this place their home. That's what matters the most in the end.

 

[Xavier]

The other side, of course, is that the actual NUMBERS aren't what make up the "supply" part, but rather the number in circulation: that's probably what doomed the Quacks price: the Net Tosses may have only added perhaps a 25-60% increase in the number of such items, but that was all excess, and instantly dumped into circulation, which vastly outstripped the previously-low-demand for said items; and knowledge of the total number, hence, did little to affect things.

"Circulation", as you prefer to call it, is just the observable level of supply and demand, the same factors we all agree should be making up the values.

You had to go there, didnt you? The net tosses and that stupid cutlass, IMO, and get offended if you like as I am just being straight here, it was a huge drama fest. The entire situation was positively ludicrous. Sure, I will support that claim. The Holy Sword, which is just as rare, just gone into game, just as sought after for rarity, and i believe the only BLESSED weapon demise has ever seen, and probably more usable is not selling for a ridiculous 20+kk, right? Ive seen it going for millions, yes, but single digit millions. Asking 20+ for the cutlass might have been viable when the first few got ingame, but it was completely unsustainable. Some thing [probably a combination of that silly price guide, and the amount of effort it took to get one giving it an achievement value in the eyes of the holder] kept its value up, long after its expiration date.

And the other side, saying there was no effect at all, obviously was downplaying the effect of someone saying "OMG, silly cutlass for sale!". People who dont actively hunt these things are FAR more likely to sell it off than the treasure hunter who spent ages trying to get one, giving it the appearance of a flood of them going ingame, which will have an affect, because it actually IS a increase in the supply, till these people sell them off and they find perm homes in collections.

The Gms and Seers also get a pretty good idea of the number of these to go ingame at net tosses due to the big chance the one who threw the net gets at the marty.

But, both exaggerated that net toss ordeal, IMO. But, the bottom line is, the value they had back then was doomed from the day it was 'set', nettoss events or not. One thing Ive observed in my years on this shard, there is a unique tendancy here for Demise players to try to hold on to the day 1 value of new/rare items for as long as they can possibly pull it off, and tend to try to resist market changes. You know what the end result of that is? The stagnant, dead trade markets everyone was complaining about a couple years ago. A solid market upheaval from time to time might hurt some, benefit others, but in the end its good for markets.

The tots themselves?? Ive heard a lot of people trying to guess at the number of these and most of the guesses are pretty similar. The basis for these estimates is purely the recent supply, which is exactly what SHOULD drive markets. Now, as Ive said, Im not telling anyone anything specific, but if you all had a clue how far offbase these item count estimates for ltots are ... well yes, it would dramatically effect them for a long time to come, and does nothing but support my strong belief AGAINST giving out this data. It could be higher, could be lower, could be by a factor of 10, could be by a factor of 100,.. but, its massively wrong, and I will not offer anything more accurate. Do what youve been doing, and go with the observable supply and demand.

As long as psz continues to tell me "youre in charge", I will continue to tell you guys "not happenin'" when it comes to item counts for anything that is a major part of the economy ingame. I feel very strongly that I am right in this, and it will be a cold day in hell before that changes, especially with this TOT event supporting my belief so.

 

[Bama]

Sure, I will support that claim. The Holy Sword, which is just as rare, just gone into game, just as sought after for rarity, and i believe the only BLESSED weapon demise has ever seen,

Pont owns a Shamino's blessed crossbow doesn't he?

 

[Xavier]

Pont owns a Shamino's blessed crossbow doesn't he?

Yeah, I should have said "had seen" instead of "has seen". The bows went in later.

 

[EvilChild]

There were probably less than 40k ltots introduced due to the events. And that's a high estimate imo. Those are just ltots that are now in players hands. It doesn't even consider ltots that are in the market place. The actual number of ltots floating around in supplier hands is FAR FAR less. Most people who farmed ltots realized that it would be limited and are hoarding them. The second ltots stopped dropping is the second that the market became supplier favored.

Remember, market values are not affected by total amount of an item, but rather are affected solely by the amount of the item being actively bought and sold. An item count would have little impact on supplier pricing. It would however have an impact on buyer expectations and thus the demand curve would be affected. What might occur due to this is a shortage of ltots in the market place. More people would be willing to buy more tots for less, but sellers would be unlikely to change their mind about the value of their ltots. Hell, you might even end up with less suppliers because people would opt to hold onto their ltots until the prices people are offering go up.

Or, the exact opposite would happen if the numbers that ended up being released were far less than what buyers expected them to be. Picture Xavier saying that only 500 ltots dropped.

 

[Cal-demise]

I agree at about 50,000 Ltots, possibly up to 100k, but thats the most i reckon.

the shame is tho that some of the events you've put on recently are temporary, and have a massive impact on the distribution of wealth on the server. I mean anyone who hasn't been on in the past month, is fu**ed now basically lol, cos all the prices of everything are gonna go up. anyone who has had little to do this past month has been able to farm way more than busy ppl. It's a very dodgy way to do it, so i think it'd be fairer to keep the prices down. Personally I think Ltots should have stayed on, as they give solo players somewhere to hunt that gets better things than minor artes (if they too weak for doom). I would have left them on for 3 months but not put in the rikktor spawn, which basically just gave wither spammers a MASSIVE advantage in farming. i'd of done it like OSI

 

[Cal-demise]

why dont you just make an event where you just give all the necro-tamers on the server 100 million gold and be done with it lol
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at least I got all the ones I need, can go back to not failing my degree for the next couple of months lol
but for example my brother and his m8 are casual players, i tried to get them on to get some but couldn't, and now the odds of them ever playin again have reduced substantially :/
I mean you say you put tots in to increase the number of new players, but all it's really done is made anyone who happened to be playing a lot this month extremely rich, which in turn increases the prices of everything :S

 

[Gio-]

Stop whining girls, anyways you all gonna die in the 2012 year.

 

[Feersum Endjinn]

The tots themselves?? Ive heard a lot of people trying to guess at the number of these and most of the guesses are pretty similar. The basis for these estimates is purely the recent supply, which is exactly what SHOULD drive markets. Now, as Ive said, Im not telling anyone anything specific, but if you all had a clue how far offbase these item count estimates for ltots are ... well yes, it would dramatically effect them for a long time to come, and does nothing but support my strong belief AGAINST giving out this data. It could be higher, could be lower, could be by a factor of 10, could be by a factor of 100,.. but, its massively wrong, and I will not offer anything more accurate. Do what youve been doing, and go with the observable supply and demand.

*chuckles*
This paragraph deserves serious analysis.
*resists temptation*
*wombles off, mumbling...*

There were probably less than 40k ltots introduced due to the events. And that's a high estimate imo

Perfect example of a 10x discrepancy between two opinions...

Just for the record, I'm going to stick to my original calculations (24hx40dx4tx?p) to get a minimum of +/- 400k (if p=100) and a maximum of +/-1.1M (if p=300) ltots introduced into the system over the last 6 weeks (many of which will by now have been converted into Gtots).

This has absolutely nothing to do with supply and demand or the number of tots "on the market".

 

[Xavier]

If we would keep the ltots on for 3 months instead of 1, then we'd have 3x as many monthly players who managed to get a whopping 10, and the ones with 1k of them stashed away would have 3k instead. I dont see how thats any better.

People that play that infrequently really are never going anywhere anyway. Sad but true.

And the difference between a rikktor spawn and a sleeping dragon spawn, really are you sure about that? Whats a dragon's fame? 15000 ? Whats a rus fame? 18000? ok. Withers would do the sleeping dragon spawn all the same.

In all reality, I boosted fame in a lot of the other locations and probably reduced it in the champ spawn, where people wither like mad and get a kazillion kills in 10s of minutes.

 

[Cal-demise]

And the difference between a rikktor spawn and a sleeping dragon spawn, really are you sure about that? Whats a dragon's fame? 15000 ? Whats a rus fame? 18000? ok. Withers would do the sleeping dragon spawn all the same.

sleeping dragon is a lot harder than the rikktor spawn tho imo, rikktor spawn is really easy without greater dragons

 

[Cal-demise]

you'd of prolly got a lot more skel drags tho i suppose.. tho they dont drop items for the raiser? i dunno, i suppose nothing woulda been perfect tbh, it's been good on the whole
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sleeping dragon is by far the hardest champ spawn, imo anyway, and i think it is that way because it is in tok and not in fel - ilsh spawns are in turn balanced by paragon spawns

 

[Cal-demise]

i think if you'd left the spawn as sleeping dragon you'd have ended up with more ppl needed to do it, and so the tots more spread out.. it woulda taken longer to rinse and repeat anyway. and i think leaving it on 3 months woulda been long enough for the hard core farmers to get bored and convinced that the market would be flooded, and so no point in hording 3k of them. 1 month is pretty much the perfect amount of time for the farmers tbh - prices woulda gone down to a solid 50k each cos you'd be paying for the time to get them too, rather than the rarity.

and they woulda taken a good year to even start to go up again
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this does have its problems as well tho, makes similar runic items pretty worthless, there's a lot to considder really, so all in all i dont think you've done a bad job with it
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one other thing is that the vast majority of the tots were dropping in the first 3 waves when it was easy to AOE. so i dont think the dragon:ru fame thing would have that much effect, its the poison, the dismount, and the 60+ damage in one hit that actually kill ppl.

 

[Xavier]

sleeping dragon is a lot harder than the rikktor spawn tho imo, rikktor spawn is really easy without greater dragons

Oh? How is that when they just boxed themselves in with footstools or got on boats and wither spammed dragged spawn, since nothing in the sleeping dragon spawn had firebreath or magery?

 

[Cal-demise]

Oni and Reverant lion dont have magery? :S
and i apreciate you were gettin messages like PLEASE STOP TOT DROPS!
but these were prolly from the farmers, cos they knew if it stayed on much longer their farmed items would not go back up in value for a long long time
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but this is just my opinion really, I really liked the game a lot more when tots were permenantly on - it was just a lot easier to get a passable character from nothing, it gave you something to solo and grind money from when you couldn't be arsed with dangerous stuff... but then they were only on in fan dancer and samurai place, so the spawn was limited and a lot lot slower
i totally agree with not bringing the season 1 gtots back tho, flourescent UO was horrible

 

[Pont]

Pont owns a Shamino's blessed crossbow doesn't he?

Yes he does

 

[TommyLeeRola]

nothing in the sleeping dragon spawn had firebreath or magery?

Onis and Revenant Lions do and they are really badasses.
Ive always feared Onis much more than rus. When sleeping dragon were there every single death of mine was because of Onis, not rus.
And tbh i got much less tots from a Sleeping Dragon round than from a Rikktor round. I thanked god when you changed the spwan lol.

 

[Cal-demise]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3ALwKeSEYs
^tommy's face when.... ;D
--
also mfw i dropped my second sash lol
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtMO-omeo5s&feature=related
mfw tots stopped dropping lol

 

[Xavier]

I guess youre right about the onis, but I am sure you also didnt see what they did with the sleeping dragon spawn. Exactly what I said they were doing, and lots of it. I guess they were just separating the spawn.